Biden’s advantage in the polls is most evident in the suburbs, where he is earning a historic amount of support for a Democrat.
Biden is up by a 52% to 43% margin among suburban voters in the ABC News/Washington Post poll.
Our early June CNN poll had Biden with a 14-point lead in the suburbs.
In the average of all the polls, Biden’s ahead by more than 15 points with suburban voters. This is a historic margin, if it holds.
The fact that Biden is doing so well in the suburbs shouldn’t be a surprise. The suburbs are a bellwether vote of sorts in our current political environment. That is, the suburban vote mirrors the national vote closer than the urban or rural vote.
Biden’s lead in the suburbs is reflective of him doing significantly better than Hillary Clinton. Four years ago at this time, Trump was beating Clinton by a 45% to 35% margin in the ABC/Washington Post poll among suburban voters.
In other words, we’re looking at nearly a 20-point improvement for Biden versus where Clinton was at this point in the 2016 campaign.
(I should note that different pollsters define “suburb” differently. Some use a Zip Code definition and others just ask, for example. Still, by none of the commonly used definitions, has a Democrat done as well as Biden is currently doing in them since at least 1972.)
The clear difference between the 1964 and 2020 elections is that Biden, at this point, is running ahead of his national numbers in the suburbs. Biden’s lead…